Daily Market Technicals 19/02/2001

A quiet start to the week as the US gets ready to celebrate President’s Day. EURUSD opened the session at .9124 (session low) having been lifted by a report that gave a mixed signal and implied that the US’s O’Neill would push for a strong dollar until the Dollar reflected fundamentals. EURUSD gains were aided in addition by cross covering in both EURJPY and EURGBP and short covering before the weekend. There were rumors of fund offers at .9180 that held the currency pair in check, but it traded higher setting the high at .9145 where it settled going into the European session. USDJPY opened the session at 116.09 and traded higher on selling in EURJPY. The move higher in USDJPY was later capped as dealers noted large selling by hedge funds and comes at a time when the currency pair is under pressure following a weekend of G7 meetings in which it is thought that Japan may be forced to further ease its monetary policy. The currency pair traded in a 115.68/116.16 range that saw it settle around 115.83. USDCHF was quiet trading in a 1.6775/1.6808 range following an open at 1.6811. GBPUSD was higher from its open at 1.4473 and traded in a 1.4465/92 range as talk of a snap election continues. AUDUSD opened the session at .5288 and failed to break key resistance at .5320 as the currency pair traded lower to establish a session range of .5288/93 that saw the currency pair settle around the lows. NZDUSD was quiet following an open around .4300 as it traded in a .4299/.4307 range.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9200 Long at 0.9140 Stop at 0.9110

Resistance:0.92200.92000.9172

Support:0.91210.91000.9047

Tries to regain composure after last week's 0.9024 low. Interesting that this was just below 0.9040 22-Sep intervention high & therefore natural support. Scope for s/term recovery, unwinding oversold daily momentum. Resistance to note includes 0.9200 area, with higher 0.9332 13-Feb high to stay out of reach. Further losses are expected at later stage towards 0.8910, 50% retracement of 0.8225/9593 upleg.

GBP-USD

Target 1.4600 Buy at 1.4450 Stop at 1.4420

Resistance:1.46131.45731.4500

Support:1.44471.44171.4370

Remains range bound within the 1.4435/1.4600 zone but downside is seen vulnerable while the 1.4600/12 resistance caps. The latter is chart and Fibonacci resistance and lift above this will be needed to allow for test of the 1.4680 bear trendline resistance drawn from the 1.5103 high seen 08-Jan. Buying cautiously favoured into the 1.4450/35 support for test of 1.4600/10.

USD-JPY

Target 116.20 Buy at 115.50 Stop at 115.20

Resistance:116.90116.65116.21

Support:115.50115.30115.00

Eased off from 116.21 intraday high but downside has been well supported above the 115.50/30 area. Buying are cautiously favoured on dips into this area with stops placed just below. Harami candlestick on the daily chart is seen supportive but upticks would need to regain 116.20 Fibonacci resistance to call for stronger recovery. Failure to hold 115.50/30 will leave the 114.50/31 support vulnerable.

EUR-CZK

Target 34.00 Sell at 34.70 Stop at 35.05

Resistance:35.10034.90034.680

Support:34.40034.36534.150

Has breached 34.60, the 61.8% retracement level of the Nov/Jan upleg to put the upside on hold and favour switching to a sell strategy short term. Key intraday resistance is seen at 34.60/65 ahead of the more important 34.90/35.00 zone. Immediate support to overcome is at 34.45/40 ahead of 34.36. Below here focus would be on the 34.15 low. Oversold daily tools favour selling on upticks.