Daily Market Technicals 09/02/2001

A peaceful but slightly tense session in Asia this Friday as traders were reluctant to initiate any significant positions in USDJPY with the Bank of Japan rate announcement unlikely to change rates from their low 0.25%. USDJPY opened near its highs at 116.75/80 and slid for most of the session as continued repatriation of yen proceeds by Japanese exporters pushed the pair down to a low of 116.38. The Nikkei also managed to recover slightly after yesterdays significant break of the 13,000 level. It was almost 1.5% by Tokyo lunchtime, this also helping the yen strengthen. The Japanese fiscal year end repatriation continues to inhibit USDJPY from making any substantial moves higher and will probably continue to do so until close to the end of March. AUDUSD had traded between 0.5355 and 0.5370. Rumours that the Reserve Bank of Australia are on the bid at 0.5340 are circulating in the market and keeping the pair from sinking, however there are some noted large sellers at the 0.5370 level which look like they will be filled as the currency resumes its recent uptrend. NZDUSD trailed the AUDUSD reluctantly initially but ended up almost 30 points higher at 0.5355 by session end. Price action in EURUSD was limited from 0.9173 up to 0.9191. Break out points noted by technicians are on the downside at 0.9165/70 for a move to 0.9110/15 or 0.9200/05 for a push higher to 0.9270/75. Very quiet in other trading.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9142 Sell at 0.9250 Stop at 0.9285

Resistance:0.93010.92560.9225

Support:0.91690.91420.9111

Holds a consolidative tone above the 0.9169 low but upticks are sell with bears targeting 0.9142/0.9111 lows from late January. While the oversold intraday tools lends support for now weak daily toold keep selling strategies favoured. Look to sell upticks above the 0.9200 and ahead of the 0.9255/70 former lows. Breakdown from the 0.9111 low would see extension to test the 0.9030 200-day moving average.

GBP/USD

Await Break Sell break below 1.4400

Resistance:1.46001.45501.4510

Support:1.43971.43753 1.4310

Weak on the daily chart but push into the 1.4463/1.4400 support zone see potential for rebound. Bullish divergence on the intraday momentum tools is seen supportive of this scenario and would prefer a break below 1.4400 to see continuation lower or to sell at higher level. Upticks would need to regain the 1.4600 level to call for recovery. Until then look to sell upticks ahead of this or on break below 1.4400.

USD-JPY

Target 117.10 Buy at 116.30 Stop at 116.00

Resistance:117.75117.10116.92

Support:116.30116.00115.60

Upside test being limited ahead of the 116.90 chart level but keep to buying strategies are favoured. Longs has sight to the 116.90 and then 117.10 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 119.90/114.31 decline. Bullish bounce from the 50-day moving average earlier in the week and break of the 3-week bear trendline suggest potential to 117.80/118.00 area. Only setback below 115.60 negates bullish outlook.

EUR-CZK

Target 35.10 Long at 34.70 Stop at 34.50

Resistance:35.32535.10034.900

Support:34.60034.52034.365

Has put pressure on 34.60, the 61.8% retracement level of the Nov/Jan upleg. With support also offered by 20-Dec 34.520 low, & room still for recently very oversold daily momentum to unwind, there is scope for a natural recovery. Favour longs, looking for recovery at least to 35.00, but capped by higher congestion resistance at & below 35.25.

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