Daily Market Technicals 12/01/2001

We saw good movement today in most of the major currencies as portfolio managers and corporate hedgers implement their strategies in the first month of this New Year. USDJPY continued to accelerate higher as worries about Japanese structural economic problems overshadowed the cyclical slowing in the US economy. USDJPY made a fresh 17-month high of 118.21 spurred in the short term by a sharp decline in the Nikkei and comments by former Japanese Finance Minister Sakakibara the influential official once known as Mr. Yen. EURUSD continued to power higher again on the back of projections that show Europe’s economy outpacing that of the United States. EURUSD flirted with .9600 once again and should break that level as portfolio shifts continue to favor the buoyant Euro zone economy. USDCHF mirrored EURUSD before running in to some solid bids ahead of 1.6100. The bids were eventually eroded as EURUSD buying pressure became too strong. GBPUSD was relatively slow today easing back a bit from big gains yesterday. AUDUSD and NZDUSD were quiet today

EUR-USD

Target 0.9580 Long at 0.9535 Stop at 0.9500

Resistance:0.96350.95930.9549

Support:0.94700.94200.9360

See the 0.9475/60 reverting to support and hold above the 0.9500 level thus far keeping downside protected. Rebound from the 0.9360 support yesterday see a bullish candlestick threatening upside extension through 0.9550 overnight high. Favour reversing to long and break here to see retest of the 0.9593 high and clear the way for test of 0.9700 high seen June last year.

GBP/USD

Target 1.5080 Long at 1.4955 Raise stop to 1.4955

Resistance:1.51031.50371.5000

Support:1.49601.49001.4856

Remains below the 1.5000/30 resistance but focus is on longs while above 1.4950/20 support. Overall trend remain bullish as hold above the 1.4840 200-day moving average and the former double bottom trigger at 1.4800 keep the downside protected. See the 1.5000/30 area posing tough resistance and sustained break here needed to call for retest of the 1.5103 high and resumption of the bull trend.

USD-JPY

Target 118.80 Long at 117.50 Stop at 116.90

Resistance:119.05118.95118.40

Support:117.20116.90116.32

Extension through the 118.00 level sets up test to 118.40, breakout objective from the 117.00/18 level, and then the 118.95 Fibonacci level. The latter being 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug-98/Nov-99 decline from 147.63 to 101.22. Downside see the 117.18/00 area reverting to support and only break would put bulls on hold for corrective pullback towards the 115.60/00 zone.

EUR-CZK

Target 35.70 Long at 34.70 Raise stop to 34.75

Resistance:35.45035.37035.200

Support:34.95034.80034.600

Has reacted well today from the 35.00 region, which marks key support area for the medium term. A close below here would put longs at risk. For now channel support from the 23-Nov-00 lows lies at 35.00 and is keeping the 34.75 stop level protected. Next the 35.45 resistance needs to be taken out to see further upside tests toward the 35.90 channel resistance.