Jan Kubíček: Blížíme se k neutrální sazbě, prostor pro další pokles je omezený

 

Rozhovor s Janem Kubíčkem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Jason Hovet (Reuters 19. 3. 2025)

Člen bankovní rady ČNB Jan Kubíček v rozhovoru pro agenturu Reuters uvedl, že se na nejbližším měnověpolitickém zasedání kloní k pozastavení snižování úrokových sazeb. Hlavní sazba se již postupně blíží své neutrální úrovni okolo 3,5 procenta. Nadále přetrvávají inflační rizika, a proto nyní není důvod, aby měnová politika byla příliš expanzivní. K případnému dalšímu snižování sazeb by mohlo dojít pouze tehdy, pokud by ekonomika výrazně zpomalila nebo inflace klesla pod očekávání centrální banky. Upozornil také na potřebu pečlivě sledovat vývoj růstu mezd a cen nemovitostí, které by mohly inflaci opět zvýšit.

Rozhovor (anglicky)

Czech central bank policymaker Jan Kubicek said he was leaning towards a pause in interest rate cuts at next week's meeting following a reduction just last month, and as inflationary pressures still remain.

The Czech National Bank delivered a rate cut of 25 basis points in February to bring its main rate to 3.75%.

Kubicek said the main rate was approaching a neutral level of around 3.50%, indicating that there was limited room left in an easing cycle which began in December 2023, and has totalled 325 bps so far.

The bank's next policy meeting is on March 26.

"We will see our experts' opinion (then), so I leave all possibilities open. But for the moment, I lean towards a pause," Kubicek told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

He did not say how long a pause could be, and said the next meeting in May was still too far away.

While the neutral level was not considered a "floor" rate for him, Kubicek said he did not "see any reason why monetary policy should be in expansionary mode now".

A move lower than that could occur if it was evident the economy was struggling, and inflation was below the expected trajectory, he said.

The central bank paused once in its easing drive, last December, before again cutting in February. Markets have currently priced in around 50 basis points in rate cuts over the next year.

Rate setters around central Europe have paused easing measures, as they await clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs which have escalated global trade tensions and could indirectly curb the region's growth prospects.

An expected rise in European defence spending, evident in Germany's move to pass a massive increase in government borrowing, is likely to raise inflation risks.

Kubicek said the impact of those risks was still unclear.

Accelerating growth

The central bank forecasts economic growth accelerating to 2% in 2025, from 1% last year, which Kubicek said was a realistic target.

The Czech economy gained steam in the fourth quarter, and inflation has so far this year stayed below 3% year-on-year, the upper end of the central bank's limit around its 2% target.

Kubicek does not see a risk of overall inflation surpassing that level. Services price growth was still high but less of a worry than before, he said, while core inflation was a reason for caution.

He said household consumption was picking up and the rate of savings of households had stopped increasing.

But if wage growth this year continued to rise at a similar pace to last year, of 7%, then that would cause him "to rethink our interest rates, in the sense that maybe the (rate reduction) trajectory in the model is too optimistic", Kubicek said.

He also cautioned about the indirect impact of rising property prices on inflation, saying: "We should not be blind to what's happening in the property market."

Czech central banker Kubicek 'sceptical' of bitcoin as reserve asset

Czech National Bank board member Jan Kubicek is "sceptical" about the inclusion of bitcoin among the bank's hefty reserves, wary of legal uncertainties and concerns around volatility of the digital currency.

CNB Governor Ales Michl put bitcoin up for consideration earlier this year, and the bank has begun an analysis looking into broadening the asset classes it holds in its reserves portfolio.

"We will assess different classes of assets. Bitcoin is just one of them," Kubicek said in an interview on Tuesday. "My position is rather sceptical about bitcoin."

He said bitcoin's legal status was one concern, and that direct ownership would mean developing many new processes in accounting or auditing, for example.

Volatility was another worry and assessing market price developments was difficult, he said.

"We cannot be certain that bitcoin's volatility in the coming years will mirror the patterns observed over the past decade because I suspect that, if more institutional investors accept bitcoin as an investment asset, it will start to behave differently from what we have seen so far."

The bank's study on new asset classes could come by October, Kubicek said.

Holdings of international corporate bonds could be explored, he said, as well as the possibility of investing in more targeted equity indices, such as for technology, and property investment funds.

CNB Vice Governor Eva Zamrazilova has said bitcoin is not a suitable asset for reserves, while European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said Europe's central banks are not the place for it.

The Czech central bank's reserves - at 142.8 billion euros ($155.75 billion) - are around 45% of gross domestic product, and it has diversified holdings in recent years, gradually purchasing gold, and shifting a larger portion of the portfolio into equities.