Demografie, revue pro výzkum populačního vývoje - č. 4/2024

David Morávek

Demografie, 66(4): 259–271
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0353

Abstract
This article discusses the use of the Lee-Carter model, one of the most widely used methods for mortality forecasting. It also discusses its modified versions, namely the cohort and coherent variants, which were developed to improve the forecast accuracy of the model. This article compares them in terms of their ability to predict long-term mortality trends in the case of the Czech Republic. The projection of mortality was based on historical data on age-specific mortality rates from 1980 to 2019 for the so-called European mortality potential, which was constructed from the lowest observed mortality rates in developed European countries. On the basis of the results, the coherent Lee-Carter model was selected as the most appropriate model, which is described by the literature as more robust and suitable for projections with a long-term horizon.

Keywords
mortality forecasting, Lee-Carter method, European mortality potential, Czech Republic

Kryštof Zeman

Demografie, 66(4): 280–293
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0354

Abstract
This paper introduces the methodology used to estimate the fertility parameters for the population projection of the Czech Republic for 2023–2050. Elements of methodology discussed here include the assumptions, input and output data, and the details of the computations and estimations. The analysis focus on the birth order dimension, cohort perspective, and high and low estimation variants. The paper further compares the estimated summary fertility indicators with past projections by the Czech Statistical Office, as well as with recent projections by other agencies.

Keywords
population projection, Czech Republic, births, fertility, total fertility rate, cohort fertility, mean age of mothers

Radek Havel