U.S. Market February 16, 2001

In the aftermath yesterday’s sharp sell offs in USDJPY and EURUSD, market participants took a step back to lick their wounds and re-evaluate their positions. In a very quiet session USDJPY and EURUSD both respected technical support levels tested during yesterday’s decline. EURUSD hovered above the 9030 support level as it traded in a tight .9045-.9072 range. Similarly USDJPY experienced a modest bounce from the 115.25 support level. USDJPY drifted in a 115.40-115.91 range. GBPUSD and USDCHF were lifeless so far today. AUDUSD and NZDUSD rose slightly in Asian trading despite a general lack of interest. Some of the markets slowness today may be due to Monday’s President’s day holiday, but illiquid markets may provide the setting for some big moves later in the day. 

EUR-USD

Target 0.9025 Short at 0.9125 Stop at 0.9170

Resistance:0.91960.91670.9130

Support:0.90200.90000.8974

Spike up above 0.9100 provide selling opportunities with the 0.9110/30 former support zone reverting to resistance. Upticks are seen corrective of oversold hourly tools for further test of the 0.9025/00 bear channel support and 200-day moving average. Below this see potential for further weakness to 0.8920/08 old congestion zone and 50% retracement of the 0.8225/0.9593 upmove.

GBP-USD

Range Trade Buy at 1.4435 Sell at 1.4550

Resistance:1.46771.46041.4545

Support:1.44611.44471.4417

Consolidative tone seen and dips into the 1.4435/00 support zone provides buying opportunities. Rejection from the 1.4600 level which marks 50% Fibonacci level of the 1.4833/1.4370 decline keep trading range bound within 1.4450/1.4435. Wider trend is weak and hold above the 1.4400 support needed to keep bears in check. Upticks need to regain 1.4700/10 bear trendline/200-day MA to return control to bulls.

USD-JPY

Target 115.00 Sell at 116.20 Stop at 116.50

Resistance:116.90116.45116.00

Support:115.36115.00114.67

Retracement from the 115.36 low seen as sell as the breakdown from 115.80/70 chart and Fibonacci support yesterday leaves the short term tone weak. Look to sell modest retracement into the 116.00/25 area with stops placed just above the high seen yesterday. Bull divergence on the intraday tools suggest scope for rebound but it would take lift above 116.50 call for recovery. Downticks threaten 115.00/114.70.

EUR-CZK

Target 34.00 Sell at 34.70 Stop at 35.05

Resistance:35.10034.90034.680

Support:34.45034.36534.150

Has breached 34.60, the 61.8% retracement level of the Nov/Jan upleg to put the upside on hold and favour switching to a sell strategy short term. Key intraday resistance is seen at 34.60/65 ahead of the more important 34.90/35.00 zone. Immediate support to overcome is at 34.45/40 ahead of 34.36. Below here focus would be on the 34.15 low.

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