Daily Market Technicals 28/02/2001

Japanese industrial production came in a shocking negative 4% after economists had forecast a very modest increase of 0.2%. The number did little to affect the currencies during the Tokyo trading hours and USDJPY traded in a narrow 116.10 to 116.44 range. Dealers are calling for a more substantial move as Europe rolls in, in anticipation of another rate cut in Japan. EURUSD remained fairly quiet today easing off after yesterdays rally in Europe and New York. The pair had pushed as high as 0.9202 in New York, opening at 0.9188/90 in New York and slipping to 0.9165. before finishing the session at 0.9175. GBPUSD suffered during the session slipping from its open at 1.4540/43 to a low at 1.4400. Technical support comes in around 1.4380/90 AUDUSD and NZDUSD were peaceful between 0.5240 and 0.5255 and 0.4293 and 0.4319.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9210 Buy at 0.9100 Stop at 0.9070

Resistance:0.93000.92400.9210

Support:0.91350.90760.9040

Upside remains limited by the 0.9200/10 resistance but maintain buy on dips strategy favoured. Look to buy dips into 0.9100/0.9080 support for test of the 0.9200/10 resistance with break to clear the way for test of 0.9240 and then 0.9300 channel resistance drawn from the 0.9593 high. Failure to hold 0.9080 support would risk setback to test 0.9040 200-day MA and then 0.9020/00 low/psychological support.

GBP-USD

Target 1.4570 Long at 1.4420 Stop at 1.4370

Resistance:1.45651.45531.4473

Support:1.44001.43781.4312

Remains supported above the 1.4400 level on a close basis though inability to clear the 1.4580/1.4612 resistance keep downside vulnerable. This resistance marks chart level as well as bear trendline drawn from the 1.5103 high seen 08-Jan. Look for sustained break here needed to confirm the bottoming formation seen on daily chart. Failure to hold 1.4400 level opens 1.4312 spike low of 20-Feb to retest

USD-JPY

Range trade Buy at 115.70 Sell at 116.70

Resistance:117.00116.77116.60

Support:115.90115.65115.30

Maintains a neutral tone with upside attempt above 116.00 seen limited by the 116.80/90 triangle resistance. Recent sideways trading see upticks into this zone to provide selling opportunities. Only a sustained break above 117.00/10 resistance would put the bulls back in play. More likely see trading likely to keep sideways with the 115.65/45 zone offering support.

EUR-CZK

Target 35.50 Long at 34.80 Stop at 34.35

Resistance:35.10034.90034.800

Support:34.40034.35034.150

Inability to overcome the 34.15/00 support area this month saw buy stops triggered at 34.80. Note that 34.00 was a key psychological support area on synthetic weekly charts between Jul-98 and Jan-99. Taking this into account a buy dips strategy would be favoured following the inability to see breakdown in the recent days. On the upside through 34.80 and targets 35.00/10 zone.

www.nicorp.org