Daily Market Technicals 26/02/2001

The Asian session was relatively quiet as speculation of a further US Fed rate cut and caution ahead of a key US data due during the week ruled the day. Sentiment towards EURUSD was favored after a try to break below .9000 on Friday, but the outlook for EURUSD, which opened the session at .9168, was tempered by concerns of the fallout from the financial crisis in Turkey. EURUSD traded in a narrow .9159/77 range that saw the currency pair settle around the session high with a bid tone. USDCHF following a 1.6751 open was bid on EURUSD weakness and traded up to 1.6768 before support in EURUSD drove USDCHF lower setting the session low at 1.6722 from where it bounced to settle at 1.6736. USDJPY opened the session at 115.92 and edged down with the market long combined with the S&P downgrade and EURJPY sales pressuring the currency pair. The currency pair traded in a 115.80/116.20 range that saw it settle around the session high. GBPUSD opened the session at 1.4523 and traded in a relatively quiet 1.4516/62 range that saw the currency pair settle around the session high. AUDUSD and NZDUSD opened the session at .5267 and .4364 respectively and traded in .5262/74 and .4357/70 ranges respectively.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9240 Long at 0.9145 Stop at 0.9120

Resistance:0.92850.92400.9200

Support:0.91400.91100.9030

Holds a consolidative tone below the 0.9210 high but buying dips are favoured with the 0.9110/30 back as support. Buy for further test of the 0.9200/10 trendline resistance with break to open the 0.9240 high from 20-Feb to retest. The latter marks a double bottom trigger on the daily chart and clearing this would leave the 0.9320 channel top open to test. Intraday see trading to keep below 0.9200/10 resistance

GBP-USD

Target 1.4600 Buy at 1.4480 Stop at 1.4440

Resistance:1.46121.46001.4553

Support:1.45001.44701.4450

Keeping upside pressured but gains above 1.4553 high seen limited for now with hourly tools showing bear divergence. Hammer formation 20-Feb and inability to sustain below the 1.4400 level on a close basis all last week suggest a bottom formation in place. Look to buy dips into 1.4480/1.4450 for retest of the 1.4600/12 chart/channel resistance. Above this see 1.4700/08, 200-day MA/50% Fib level attracting.

USD-JPY

Target 115.30 Short at 116.15 Stop at 116.50

Resistance:117.17116.35116.10

Support:115.65115.30114.70

Upticks seen as sell into 116.30/50 resistance for further test of the 115.50/60 support. Rejection from trendline resistance drawn from 119.90 high at 117.00/10 last week see the downside vulnerable, short term. Shorts aim for break of the 115.50/60 area to target 115.30 and then 114.70 before renewed buying is expected to emerge. Lack of a clear direction see trading keeping within 118.00/114.00 zone.

EUR-CZK

Target 35.50 Long at 34.80 Stop at 34.35

Resistance:35.10034.90034.800

Support:34.40034.35034.150

Inability to overcome the 34.15/00 support area this week saw buy stops triggered at 34.80. Note that 34.00 was a key psychological support area on synthetic weekly charts between Jul-98 and Jan-99. Taking this into account a buy dips strategy would be favoured following the inability to see breakdown in the recent days. On the upside through 34.80 and targets 35.00/10 zone.

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