Daily Market Technicals 26/01/2001

After the dollars weakening in Europe and New York yesterday Asia took a breather today as the majors traded in narrow ranges. USDJPY opened around 116.65/68 and retraced a little early Tokyo morning to 116.96 unable to make it past 117.00. Alan Greenspan’s speech today has made traders fearful to be long the greenback, Greenspan said yesterday that the economy had virtually come to a complete slowdown, but that a recession was unlikely. The interest rate market bought the front end of the curve pricing in a full 50 basis point rate cut next Tuesday. This should keep the dollar from making any significant rally, as we saw in the euro overnight. Euro which had slipped to 0.9117 rallied back above 0.9200 opening Asia at 0.9235 and trying for the break above 0.9250/60 area. Needless to say the currency met with much resistance at this highly important technical level. EURUSD slid back to 0.9220 by our session end. AUDUSD had a painfully quiet session trading between 0.5455 and 0.5460. NZDUSD backed off from 0.4380 to 0.4355. GBPUSD climbed higher at the start to 1.4617 but slipped back under the figure to settle at 1.4590.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9111 Sell at 0.9250 Stop at 0.9290

Resistance:0.93350.92880.9262

Support:0.92000.91110.9070

Market rejected initial push below 0.9200 with rebound from the 0.9111 low seeing the market return to the 0.9255 region. With intraday techs fading the market is likely to struggle to bounce much higher, thus with daily techs remaining weak selling in the 0.9250 region is favoured. Shorts seek a return below 0.9200 to retest 0.9111 with failure here to target 0.382 Fibo at 0.9070. Favour stop above prior 0.9288 low

GBP/USD

Target 1.4680 Buy at 1.4580 Stop at 1.4545

Resistance:1.47731.46821.4623

Support:1.45751.45451.4530

Regained upside focus with prices piercing thru the mid-candle of the previous session and bullish divergence seen on the daily RSI(9). Hourly chart showing a potential bullish pennant with breach of 1.4632 high to trigger further push towards 1.4680. Setback below 1.4575 support would see stronger pullback to the 50% Fibo of last nite's 1.4468/.4632 rally seen at 1.4550 ahead of 61.8% seen at 1.4530.

USD/JPY

Target 116.20 Short at 116.75 Stop at 117.10

Resistance:118.14117.45116.90

Support:116.32116.15116.00

Market sits in congestion band between the intraday low of 116.32 and resistance at 116.90. Look to maintain existing shorts while below the latter but suggest a closely guarded stop just above here. Shorts favour an extension below 116.32 with initial major target at 116.20/15. Failure here would be significantly bearish and would expose 115.60. Favour placing stops in the 117.10 region.

EUR/CZK

Target 34.60 Sell at 35.10 Stop at 35.35

Resistance:35.88035.80035.325

Support:34.77034.60034.520

On Wed broke trendline support running through 35.15/20 area, giving s/term bearish signal. Initial retracement to 34.80 area (50%) has been seen & should see some support, so favour not chasing the market, but selling rallies. Later scope for 61.8%, to 34.60. Good resistance should be seen from congestion at & below 35.325. Main risk to the bear view is a break/hold above this.

www.nicorp.org