Daily Market Technicals 25/01/2001

The Euro was the main focus today as its serious dip last night in New York resulted in breaking a key technical level at 0.9260. Many key foreign exchange players had been long the euro in anticipation of an improving Euro state economy against a slowing US economy. There are no real signs however of the US economy sinking into recession, in fact recent economic statistics suggest the economy is forging ahead at a steady and strong pace. This has lead to heavy liquidation of long euro positions and the euro touching a session low at 0.9202 cents. Japanese exporters hit the EURJPY cross upon their arrival this morning fearing further losses on repatriating their euro profits at the price of a stronger yen. This also has weighed on EURUSD. USDJPY also felt the weight of the cross starting the session around 117.90, falling to 117.60 early morning but managing to recover to its opening level by mid afternoon. AUDUSD traded quietly between 0.5427 and 0.5450 weakening initially alongside the euro but finishing at 0.5235. NZDUSD likewise weakened from its open at 0.4370 to 0.4355 closing back close to 0.4370. GBPUSD opened at 1.4565 and slipped to 1.4529 before closing at 1.4540.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9183 Sell at 0.9288 Stop at 0.9330

Resistance:0.93220.92880.9262

Support:0.92020.91830.9070

Asia saw consolidation of pullback in band of 0.9202 to 0.9247. The previously broken bull channel at approx 0.9215 is assisting with suppt & firming intraday techs suggest room for a bounce. However, such a move is simply seen as offering better selling opportunities as the tone of the market remains weak with daily techs pointing firmly lower. Sell in 0.9262/88 region. Below 0.9202 tgts 0.9183 then 0.9070.

GBP/USD

Target 1.4400 Sell at 1.4600 Stop at 1.4685

Resistance:1.46601.46201.4567

Support:1.45271.45121.4445

Remains little changed after the Asian session saw trade consolidating in a band of 1.4529 to 1.4567, just above the 1.4512 low. Intraday techs are starting to firm marginally to suggest room for modest upticks to provide better selling opportunities. Would look to sell in the 1.4600/20 region with 1.4660 providing a further sell opportunity in anticipation of drop below 1.4529/12 toward 1.4400/4398.

USD-JPY

Target 118.90 Long at 117.70 Stop at 117.20

Resistance:119.35118.90118.47

Support:117.55117.2516.53

Modest dip during Asian trade has seen a low of 117.50. This move is seen as a cautious buying opportunity in anticipation of further tests to the 118.40/47 NY high & 0.618 Fibo retracement of the fall from 119.90. An initial target above 118.40/47 would be in the 118.90/119.00 congestion are. Weak longs cautious on sustained hold below 117.67 with stops suggested below the Tue highs in the 117.43 region.

EUR-CZK

Stopped Out Sell at 35.10 Stop at 35.35

Resistance:35.98035.88035.800

Support:35.20035.10035.000

Has broken trendline support running through 35.15/20 area, giving s/term bearish signal. Initial retracement to 34.80 area (50%) should see some support, so favour not chasing the market, but selling rallies. Later scope for 61.8%, to 34.60. Good resistance should be seen from congestion at & below 35.325. Main risk to the bear view is a break/hold above this.

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