Daily Market Technicals 11/12/2000

In the Asian session the week began quietly with USDJPY, which opened the session at 11.22  steady as worries about the Japanese equity markets (spurred by a proposed change in the  Morgan Stanley’s Capital International’s global equity index) drove dealers out of YEN and  into Dollars. There was heavy option related selling around 111.50 as speculators covered  long positions held since 110.96. The currency pair traded in a 110.87/111.41 range, settling around 110.87 going into the European session. USDJPY was also weaker on news that Japanese corporate profits and firm capital spending were on the rise, which bode well for the Tankan and the YEN. EURUSD opened the session at .8826 and was quiet following selling of the currency pair via the EURCHF cross in the latter part of last week. The currency pair traded in a quiet .8825/40 range and settled around the lows towards the session close. THE  European central Bank is rumored to be leaning towards leaving rates unchanged given the steady growth in the eurozone and the recent strength the EURO has enjoyed. USDCHF raded  in a 48-point range opening the session at 1.7111 and trading in a 1.7065/1.7113 range that saw the currency pair settle in the middle of the range. GBPUSD was equally quiet opening the session at 1.4465 and trading in a narrow 34-point range (1.4437/71). AUDUSD and NZDUSD opened the session at .5447 and .4269 and traded in .5427/52 and .4238/69 ranges respectively.

EUR-USD

Target 0.8790 Short at 0.8900 Lower stop to 0.8935

Resistance:0.89740.89320.8863

Support:0.88000.87700.8754

Remains quiet in late Asian trade with a range for the day of 0.8848 to 0.8810. Risk remains to the downside for the near term as daily techs point lower with initial targets just below the psychological 0.8800 level at 0.8790/70, roughly in line with Wednesday's lows. Favour stops for shorts just above the 0.8922/32 barrier but would need a clear & sustained push above the 0.8974 high of Thurs to resume the rally.

GBP/USD

Target 1.4530 Buy at 1.4430 Stop at 1.4410

Resistance:1.45731.45601.4530

Support:1.44241.43861.4310

Prices holding above the up-trend line seen from the 24-Nov low and this should keep prices on a positive tone, targeting the 1.4530 resistance, ahead of the 1.4560 set on 04-Dec. Buying on pullback towards the trendline support seen at 1.4424 favoured with further downside protection seen at 1.4386 Hourly trading currently seen in oversold region and this should keep downside probe limited to 1.4424.

JPY/USD

Target 112.00 Long at 111.00 Stop at 110.55

Resistance:111.80111.75111.55

Support:110.70110.15110.01

Hold back below 111.00 in the wake of rejection from the 111.45/55 resistance barrier saw the market fall to 110.70 in Asian trade. Although the longer term focus remains on the upside, weak longs should consider stops below 110.60 with a cautious eye on the potential 3-week Head & Shoulders pattern. Push above 111.45/55 is needed for retest of 112.00 with rally to resume above here.

EUR/CZK

Target 35.20 Long at 34.70 Stop at 34.50

Resistance:35.25035.20035.080

Support:34.70034.60034.450

Upmove since 23-Nov looks to have gained strength. With dips having been underpinned by three channel supports which came in at the 34.10/33.90 zone. The strong reaction through the resistance line from the 04-Oct high is positive with activity holding above this at 34.70. This also coincides with congestion on daily charts. Channel resistance from the May highs is next target at 35.25.

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