Daily Market Technicals 20/03/2001

A very quiet session in Asia today with Japan on a holiday. USDJPY traded in a narrow range between 122.70 and 122.96 as the Bank of Japans zero interest rate target change went largely unnoticed in the market. EURUSD likewise was very quiet as it made a number of attempts to break above 0.9005/10 in an attempt to take out some stop levels at 0.9020 level. However with not much liquidity it was unable and settled around 0.9000. AUDUSD and NZDUSD traded between 0.4984 to 0.5007 and 0.4177 to 0.4204 respectively. All eyes remain focused on the Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement on interest rates to be released later today. Market expectations are for a 50 basis point cut with the risk for 75 basis points. 

EUR-USD

Target 0.8850 Short at 0.8985 Stop at 0.9025

Resistance:0.91250.90920.9017

Support:0.89700.89500.8905

Lack of momentum hampering upside attempt to clear the 0.9000/20 resistance. Break above this would stop out short position and return trading above the 200-day moving average. Above this favour a stronger push towards 0.9092 Fibonacci level. Downside see supports at 0.8970 and 0.8950 on the hourly chart which keep the key 0.8909/16, chart and 50% Fibonacci level protected.

GBP-USD

Target 1.4380 Long at 1.4255 Stop at 1.4200

Resistance:1.43801.43351.4280

Support:1.42201.41701.4138

Firm hourly tools lend support and with the daily tools into oversold territory scope is seen for short term rebound. Buying dips cautiously favoured into the 1.4200 level for recovery to test the 1.4400 former support. Only below the 1.4200 level would leave the 1.3950/1.4000 lows seen Sep/Nov last year open to threat. Intervening resistance seen at 1.4280 and 1.4330/40 ahead of the 1.4400/20 area.

USD-JPY

Target 123.15 Buy on dips Stop at 121.80

Resistance:124.15123.61123.15

Support:122.30121.86121.20

Weak hourly tools threatens further downside probes though hold above 121.86/122.00 support keep short term focus on bull play. Dips are buy for further test of the 123.00/15 level and extension through 123.61 high to see 124.40/75 peak from May-99 attracting. Only a break of the 121.86/122.00 support would open up a corrective phase towards the 120.00/50 congestion zone.

EUR-CZK

Target 34.00 Short at 34.60 Stop at 34.85

Resistance:35.10034.95034.640

Support:34.50034.35034.150

Stay on a weak footing. Recent violation of the support line from the 34.35 low at 15-Feb weighs on the rate. Scope is now for retest of the 34.35 low which would open up the 34.00 psych level again. Below here focus would be on the 33.75 synthetic low from Aug-98. On the upside 34.60/65 congestion offers initial resistance. .

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