Daily Market Technicals 15/03/2001

We had a very quiet trading session today during Asian hours. USDJPY traded in a tight 119.64-119.97 range. Rumors that an Asian central bank had placed large bids above 119.50 to protect an option at 119.20 were substantiated by the early price action that had USDJPY attempting to break below 119.60 several times only to retreat to the current high at 119.97. EURUSD was also exceptionally quiet trading in a .9138-.9155 range. EURUSD was taken to its lows from reported EURJPY sales by Japanese hedgers. USDCHF drifted aimlessly most of the session taking its cue from EURUSD. GBPUSD was also lifeless trading in 1.4480-.1.4500 band with no notable new or flows to drive price action. NZDUSD and AUDUSD continued to show no signs recovery since last weeks rate cut by the RBA. for dollars. EURUSD fell from 0.9300 to 0.9280. AUDUSD and NZDUSD slid alongside the EURUSD, as did the Cable.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9080 Sell at 0.9150 Stop at 0.9200

Resistance:0.92500.92100.9150

Support:0.90760.90400.9017

Edged below the 0.9100 level though bull divergence on the intraday momentum tools suggest corrective bounce likely. However, the weak daily tools keep the short term focus on selling strategy with upticks to see 0.9150 posing resistance. Extension through 0.9078 low would see the 0.9040 200-day moving average and 0.9024/0.9017 lows to play for. Lift above 0.9200 needed to see bulls regaining control.

GBP-USD

Target 1.4510 Long at 1.4450 Stop at 1.4410

Resistance:1.46161.45771.4510

Support:1.44361.44201.4392

Weak daily posture weighs though downside see the 1.4435/50 and 1.4420 offering supports. It would take convincing break here to open the way for retest of the 1.4312 spike low seen 20-Feb. Bullish divergence on the intraday tools suggest scope for rebound though upticks see the 1.4500/10 and then 1.4577 posing resistances. Buying cautiously favoured here for test of 1.4510.

USD-JPY

Target 121.20 Buy at 120.25 Stop at 119.90

Resistance:122.83121.42121.20

Support:120.40120.00119.62

Seen keeping well supported while above the 120.00/20 zone and dips to provide buying opportunity. Above this keep focus on bull play for further short term test of the 121.15/20 resistance with the 121.80 further out marking swing objective. However, caution are advised on longs with daily tools displaying bearish divergence. Below the 120.00 level would trigger setback to retest the 119.30/00 support zone.

EUR-CZK

Stopped out Sell upticks Raise stop to 34.85

Resistance:35.32035.10034.950

Support:34.40034.35034.150

Is on a weak footing this week having triggered stops on shorts at 35.50. Also the violation of the support line from the 34.35 low at 15-Feb weighs on the rate. Scope is now for retest of the 34.35 low which would open up the 34.00 psych level again. Below here focus would be on the 33.75 synthetic low from Aug-98. On the upside 34.60 congestion offers initial resistance.

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