Daily Market Technicals 14/02/2001

The yen continued to strengthen today in Tokyo as repatriation fueled the yen to strengthen to 107.55 from 107.95 euros and pushing it to 116.65 yen against the US dollar. Later in the Tokyo session Korudo, a minister of international affairs, had tried to talk the yen weaker but exporters bought back their yen at any opportunity of weakness. Also lending strength to the yen is continued attacks on the current highly unpopular Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori. The perception is that he will have to step down and his replacement could only do a better job. The dollar managed to strengthen against the euro overnight late Europe and in New York as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke about the current state of the economy. Greenspan noted that the economy was in slow mode but did not seem as bad as late last year was indicating. He predicted year on year Gross Domestic Product to be in the 2.0 to 2.5% area and the economy showing signs of picking up in the latter half of this year. After several attempts to break above the 0.5400 level the AUDUSD took sank to 10 week lows at 0.5310 taking its cue from the euro’s weakness.

EUR-USD

Wait Reaction Towards 0.9170 Congestion Zone

Resistance:0.93320.92650.9240

Support:0.91700.91300.9111

Holds a consolidative tone above the 0.9180/70 support though weak daily tone see the downside vulnerable. Break below this would clear the way for retest of the 0.9130/11 lows with the bear engulfing chart pattern yesterday seen weighing. Look for recovery above 0.9265 to relieve the bearish pressure and allow for retest of 0.9330. Above this see more important resistance at 0.9380, bear channel top.

GBP-USD

Target 1.4635 Long at 1.4510 Raise stop to 1.4500

Resistance:1.46401.46021.4576

Support:1.45001.44761.4449

Confined to tight trading range with the lack of momentum to see sideways trade prevailing. However, above the 1.4450/35 support keep downside protected and upticks favoured for test 1.4576 and 1.4600 resistances. Above the latter needed to lend a firmer tone calling for challenge of the 1.4700/25, chart/trendline resistance and 200-day moving average. Only below 1.4450/35 area would negate positive outlook.

USD-JPY

Target 117.90 Buy at 116.00 Stop at 115.60

Resistance:117.95117.63117.20

Support:116.52116.35116.15

Weak intraday tools threatens further short term losses but see dips to 116.15/00 area to provide buying opportunities. Below this see key support at the 115.70/60 chart and 61.8% Fibonacci level though this is not expected to be threatened. Hold above the latter keep the overall outlook bullish and return above the 117.00/20 resistance to call for retest of 117.90/118.00 area.

EUR-CZK

Stopped out Sell upticks Stop at 35.05

Resistance:35.10034.90034.720

Support:34.53034.52034.365

Has breached 34.60, the 61.8% retracement level of the Nov/Jan upleg to put the upside on hold and favour switching to a sell strategy short term. Key intraday resistance is seen at 34.75/80 ahead of the more important 34.90/35.00 zone. Immediate support to overcome is at 34.45/40 ahead of 34.36. Below here focus would be on the 34.15 low.