Daily Market Technicals 05/03/2001

In the Asian session USDJPY opened the session at 119.18 having risen to 6-week highs as traders despaired of any quick end to the weak Japanese stock market and the political outlook for Japan. The currency pair range traded as it continued to show a bid tone in the face of a sagging Japanese economy. The currency pair traded in a 119.14/42 range that saw it settle around the middle of the range. Japanese authorities have proposed a package designed to strengthen the Japanese economy. EURUSD opened the session at .9346 and showed early weakness hovering around .9330 the bulk of the session following a session high set around .9365 before weakness in the EURYEN drove EURUSD down to .9319 (session low) late in the session where it settled. USDCHF opened the session at 1.6440 (1.6433 session low) and traded to 1.6470 on continued EURUSD weakness. The currency pair stalled coming off to 1.6458 before a second rally saw the currency pair set the session high at 1.6495 where it hovered going into the close of the session. GBPUSD opened the session at 1.4697 and traded in a quiet 1.4682/1.4700. AUDUSD and NZDUSD opened the session at .5265 and .4354 and traded in .5262/95 and .4354/59 ranges respectively.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9245 Short at 0.9360 Stop at 0.9385

Resistance:0.94450.93780.9353

Support:0.92890.92400.9210

Last week tested 0.9373, 61.8% of 0.9593/9017 downmove. This is a natural place from which to expect a pullback, favouring shorts. An initial retest of recent congestion around 0.9300 has occurred, but further losses towards 0.9237/40 support (38.2% pullback/20-Feb high) are sought. Scope for shorter term momentum to unwind from overbought too. Risk is break/hold above recent 0.9378 high.

GBP-USD

Target 1.4800 Long at 1.4690 Stop at 1.4640

Resistance:1.48001.47641.4725

Support:1.46501.46121.4580

Overall remains constructive after last week's break from consolidation mode. Recent strength to 1.4764 high saw shorter term momentum overextended but later scope remains towards 1.4800, 61.8% recovery of 1.5103/4312 decline. Resistance also just above at 1.4833 02-Feb high. Ideally support should hold at 1.4612 14-Feb high, main risk being collapse/hold below 1.4540/80 Friday congestion.

USD-JPY

Stop Longs Sell at 119.20 Stop at 119.60

Resistance:119.90119.50119.20

Support:118.86118.20117.95

Recovery so far stays below previous 119.90 high. Although expected to be tested in due course, intraday structure of chart suggests pullback scope, to be supported s/term above the 117.95 12-Feb high. Fresh bull strategies may be considered at these lower levels. Meanwhile favour sell upticks below 119.50 intraday high, marking clear risk to the trade.

EUR-CZK

Target 35.50 Long at 34.80 Stop at 34.35

Resistance:35.10034.90034.800

Support:34.40034.35034.150

Inability to overcome the 34.15/00 support area last month saw buy stops triggered at 34.80. Note that 34.00 was a key psychological support area on synthetic weekly charts between Jul-98 and Jan-99. Taking this into account a buy dips strategy would be favoured following the inability to see breakdown in recent weeks. On the upside through 34.80 and targets 35.00/10 zone.

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