GDP suprised on the upside 2.5%

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Investiční bankovnictví KB

      The GDP rose by 2,5% y/y in the Q2/02- The CSU revised the GDP growth in the Q1 from 2,5% to 2,8%. The GDP dynamics bet ours and market expectations. Household consumption (3,6% y/y) and government expenditure (4,6%) pulled the growth. The structure of the GDP unveils that the investment (fixed capital formation) slowed down further in the Q2 to 3,3% y/y, which is considerably less than 7,2% in whole 2001. Also net exports contributed negligibly to the Q2 growth.

      

       Overall dynamics of the GDP is not bad taking into account the problems of German (European) economy. Nevertheless the structure could be better. Investments slowed down further influenced by the stagnation of global economy. High government expenditure is not positive news for the central bank. On the other hand, the household consumption is steadily rising and further deterioration of the labor market should not enable it to accelerate. The floods will negatively influence the Q3 GDP. We assume the GDP will rise by 2.7% in whole 2002.

      

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