Unipetrol - 3Q17 Preview

	Unipetrol – 3Q17 Preview Outstanding Macro Environment Continues
Oil & Gas	CURRENT PRICE	CZK 345
CZECH REPUBLIC                                          TARGET PRICE                                   CZK 415

 

Bloomberg UNIPE CP  Reuters               UNIPE PR

www.unipetrol.cz 

Market Cap                              CZK 62.7bn

Shares outst.                                  181.3mn

Free float                                              37%

 

 

Performance             1M          3M       12M

Absolute +1.2%      +17.3%+88.0% Relative (PX) +1.0%      +12.7%+72.2% 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ondrej Konak

Senior Analyst Patria Finance a.s. +420 221 424 111 konak@patria.cz

 

DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER SECTION

3Q17 Results Preview

 

Unipetrol releases its consolidated results for 3Q17 on October 19, B/Mkt.

 

We expect another strong set of results driven by ongoing downstream margin strength as well as positive retail seasonality. We do not expect third quarter results to be distorted by the insurance claims as company has been still negotiating over the last claim with the insurance companies at ca CZK 2.8bn and we expect this to be finalized by the end of this year.

 

We expect nearly 28% annual increase in revenues and more than double the EBITDA that translates into nearly 11% EBITDA margin. 

 

• REFINING: Refinery margin further increased in 3Q17 to USD 5.5/bbl from USD 3.8/bbl in 2Q17 and USD 1.6/bbl in 3Q16 with crude oil price being just slightly higher y/y (USD 52/bbl vs. USD

46/bbl).

 

• PETCHEM: Combined petchem margins further decreased in 3Q17 to EUR 750/t from EUR 843/t in 2Q16 and EUR 841/t in 3Q16. We expect utilization rate to stay above 90%.

 

• RETAIL: We expect ongoing strength driven by higher volumes, retail margins and strong seasonality. 

 

  

CZK bln.	3Q17E	3Q16A	y/y	3Q17E Cons	vs. Cons
Group total revenues	29.5	23.1	+27.7%	na	na
EBITDA	3.2	1.4	na	na	na
EBIT	2.1	0.9	na	na	na
Net income	1.3	0.7	na	na	na

 

Source: Bloomberg, Patria Research, Unipetrol

 

Conference call: 19^th July 2017 at 14:00 (CET); Dial-in number: +44 22 888 2950

(UK); PIN: 15488546#

Refer to important disclosures, disclaimers and analyst certifications at the end of the body of this research

The company disclosures can be consulted on our website http://www.patria.cz/stocks/research/recommendation.html

 

 

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Company	Conflicts of Interest
Unipetrol	1, 2

 

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Financials	Recomendation
Erste Bank	14.3.16 (Accum; EUR 26.5), 21.9.15 (Buy; EUR 30), 30.4.15 (Buy; EUR 28), 26.1.15 (Buy; EUR 24), 4.11.14 (Accum; EUR 22.5)
Komercni Banka*	8.11.16 (Reduce, CZK 820), 3.11.16 (under review), 14.3.16 (Buy; CZK 1 140), 23.11.15 (Buy, CZK1 170), 30.4.15 (Hold; CZK 1 120)
Vienna Insurance Group	1.9.16 (Hold, EUR 18.5), 22.10.15 (U/R), 19.9.14 (Hold; EUR 39.5), 19.8.13 (Accum; EUR 42.5), 28.1.13 (Hold; EUR 37.5), 7.12.12 (Hold; EUR 40)
Moneta	6.5.16 (Buy, CZK 83)
PKO Bank Polski	14.3.16 (Hold; PLN 27)
Bank Pekao * split 1:5	29.6.17 (Buy, PLN 160), 14.3.16 (Reduce; PLN 150)
Telecoms	Recomendation
O2CR	6.2.17 (Buy, CZK 286), 28.7.16 (Buy, CZK 265), 23.2.16 (Buy; CZK 301), 22.10.15 (U/R), 17.10.14 (Reduce; CZK 230), 1.8.14 (Hold; CZK 265),
Magyar Telekom	23.2.17 (Sell; HUF 472), 19.4.16 (Accum; HUF 510), 16.3.16 (Accum; HUF 494)
Orange Polska	6.9.17 (Sell; PLN 4.7), 28.6.17 (Sell; PLN 3.9), 1.3.17 (Sell; PLN 3.89), 15.11.16 (Buy; PLN 6.2), 27.7.16 (Accumulate; PLN 6.2), 5.5.16 (Hold; PLN 6.0), 23.3.16 (Sell; PLN 6.0)
Cyfrowy Polsat	24.8.16 (Hold; PLN 27.9), 15.4.16 (Hold; PLN 25.2)
Utilities	Recomendation
CEZ	17.3.16 (Reduce; CZK 395), 15.10.15 (Accum; CZK 555), 10.4.14 (Hold; CZK 625), 23.3.14 (Hold; CZK 600), 12.2.14 (Hold; CZK 600)
Oil & Gas	Recomendation
Unipetrol	6.9.17 (Buy, CZK 415), 13.4.16 (Buy, CZK 304), 24.8.16 (Buy, CZK 223), 12.1.16 (U/R), 18.5.15 (Hold; CZK 145), 1.7.14 (Hold; CZK 130), 13.3.14 (Sell; CZK 130)
PKN Orlen	7.12.16 (Sell; PLN 66.3), 3.11.16 (Sell; PLN 63.0)
PGNiG	22.3.17 (Sell, PLN 4.05), 29.11.16 (Buy, PLN 5.40)
Consumer Staples	Recomendation

Philip Morris 13.10.15 (Hold; CZK 11 850), 17.2.15 (Accum; CZK 11 000), 17.10.14 (Buy; CZK 11 000), 19.9.14 (Accum; CZK 11 000), 11.9.13 (Hold; CZK 11 000) Pegas Nonwovens 9.2.16 (Accum; CZK 800), 30.9.15 (Suspended), 15.5.15 (Accum; CZK 800), 14.3.14 (Accum; CZK 664), 20.1.14 (Hold; CZK 560)

 

 

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