Daily Market Technicals 16/01/2001

The yen ended up gaining ground Tuesday in Asia as Japanese exporters were seen showing large offers around the 119.50 level. The pair initially rallied at the open from The New York close at 118.90 to a session high at 119.18 in choppy trading but soon fell quickly back to end at 118.35. The medium term goal is still to break the 120.00 level followed by a potential move for 124.00 yen. The move however will continue to be tempered by the approaching Japanese fiscal year end as companies will repatriate profits from abroad and change them into yen. EURUSD suffered as the EURJPY cross was sold off. The pair opened in the 20’s push up to 0.9440 before sinking back down to just above 0.9400 at the close. AUDUSD was firmly bid today inspired buy a lot of buying in the AUDNZD cross which kept the aussie firm against most other currencies. NZDUSD also remained little changed from its open at 0.4450, but kept from rallying as much due to the AUDNZD buying. GBPUSD seemed firm for most of the session touching 1.4779 but dipped back to its opening level at 1.4760 at the end. One other interesting point to note is that detailed talks of a takeover bid by the Swiss chocolate makers Nestle of Ralston Purina of the US have kept this pair bid and hence the euro softer (due to the inverse relationship of the pair). The size of the deals is approximately 10.0 Bio USD and this is keeping traders on guard in that pair.

EUR-USD

Target 0.9300 Short at 0.9400 Stop at 0.9440

Resistance:0.95290.94700.9440

Support:0.94100.93600.9345

 Breakdown from 0.9410/00 triangle triggers short position for test of the 0.9360/50 area. This is low seen 10-Jan as well as trendline drawn off the 0.8372/75 low seen Nov-00. This level is also the 0.9593/0.9578 double top trigger on daily chart where break would clear the way for stronger corrective losses and see potential to the 0.9262 low seen 04-Jan.

GBP/USD

Target 1.4670 Sell at 1.4830 Stop at 1.4885

Resistance:1.48561.48251.4805

Support:1.47501.47081.4666

Seen consolidative above the 1.4708 low but upticks are sell ahead of the 1.4855/70 former support levels. Intraday see trading likely to hold an upside bias for probes to test the 1.4800/10 area. However, the weak daily posture suggest further test of the downside likely with extension through the 1.4708 low to see the 1.4666 and 1.4610 levels attracting.

USD-JPY

Target 117.20 Short at 118.35 Stop at 118.70

Resistance:119.70119.55119.38

Support:118.25118.10117.40

See minor support level at 118.55 reverting to resistance with negative intraday technicals expected to pressure. Shorts cautiously favoured for test of 118.00 level and where break would open to the way for slippage towards 117.20/00 support zone. Look for return above 118.70/80 area needed to shift focus back to the upside for retest of the 119.38 high and 120.00 level.

EUR-CZK

Target 35.70 Long at 34.70 Raise stop to 34.85

Resistance:35.80035.62035.450

Support:34.10034.50034.800

Is choppy following the reaction last week from the 35.00 region, which marks key support area for the medium term. A close below here would put longs at risk. For now channel support from the 23-Nov-00 lows lies at 35.10 and is keeping 35.00 protected. Next the 35.45 resistance needs to be taken out to see further upside tests toward the 35.90 channel resistance.

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