Euro area annual inflation down to 1.7%
Announcement: changes to the HICP
As of 4 February 2026, several methodological changes have taken effect in the HICP. The index is compiled according to the new European Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose version 2, aligned with the UN COICOP 2018 classification. Games of chance are included in the HICP as part of Recreation services under the division of Recreation, sport and culture. The index reference period is also updated to 2025=100.
Overview
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.7% in January 2026, down from 2.0% in December according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (3.2%, compared with 3.4% in December), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.7%, compared with 2.5% in December), non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, compared with 0.3% in December) and energy (-4.1%, compared with -1.9% in December) .
Tables
|
Euro area annual inflation and its components (%) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Weights (‰) |
Annual rate |
Monthly rate |
|||||||
|
Jan 25 |
Aug 25 |
Sept 25 |
Oct 25 |
Nov 25 |
Dec 25 |
Jan 26 |
Jan 26 |
||
|
All-items HICP |
1000.0e | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
1.7e |
-0.5e |
|
All-items excluding: energy |
909.6e | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
2.3e |
-0.7e |
|
energy, unprocessed food |
858.4e | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
2.2e |
-0.8e |
|
energy, food, alcohol & tobacco |
720.1e | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
2.2e |
-1.1e |
|
Food, alcohol & tobacco |
189.5e | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
2.7e |
0.9e |
|
processed food, alcohol & tobacco |
138.2e | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
2.1e |
0.5e |
|
unprocessed food |
51.3e | 1.3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
4.4e |
1.7e |
|
Energy |
90.4e | 1.9 | -2.0 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -1.9 |
-4.1e |
0.7e |
|
Non-energy industrial goods |
253.4e | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
0.4e |
-2.4e |
|
Services |
466.7e | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
3.2e |
-0.3e |
|
e estimate Source dataset: prc_hicp_manr and prc_hicp_mmor
|
|||||||||
|
Inflation rates (%) measured by the HICP |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Annual rate |
Monthly rate |
|||||||
|
Jan 25 |
Aug 25 |
Sept 25 |
Oct 25 |
Nov 25 |
Dec 25 |
Jan 26 |
Jan 26 |
|
|
Belgium |
4.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
1.4 |
-1.5 |
|
Bulgaria |
3.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
2.3e |
0.6e |
|
Germany |
2.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
2.1 |
-0.1 |
|
Estonia |
3.8 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 |
c |
c |
|
Ireland |
1.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
2.6e |
-0.9e |
|
Greece |
3.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
2.8 |
-0.8 |
|
Spain |
2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
2.5e |
-0.7e |
|
France |
1.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
0.4 |
-0.4 |
|
Croatia |
5.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
3.6e |
0.1e |
|
Italy |
1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
1.0e |
-1.0e |
|
Cyprus |
2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
|
Latvia |
3.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
2.6e |
-0.3e |
|
Lithuania |
3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
2.8 |
1.2 |
|
Luxembourg |
2.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
1.6e |
-1.3e |
| 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
2.5e |
-0.4e | |
|
Netherlands |
3.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
2.2e |
-1.3e |
|
Austria |
3.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8p |
2.0e |
-0.8e |
|
Portugal |
2.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
1.9e |
-1.1e |
|
Slovenia |
2.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
2.4e |
-0.5e |
|
Slovakia |
4.3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
4.2e |
1.9e |
|
Finland |
1.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
1.0e |
-0.2e |
|
e estimate
Source dataset: prc_hicp_manr and prc_hicp_mmor
|
||||||||
Notes for users
Revisions and timetable
The euro area inflation flash estimate is issued at the end of each reference month.
For the purposes of calculating European aggregates in this flash release, the following data were transmitted to Eurostat as confidential:
-
Until 6 February 2026, all data for Estonia for reference month January 2026.
-
Until Eurostat’s publication on 25 February 2026, weights for reference year 2026 for Bulgaria, Germany, Croatia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, and Slovenia.
The complete set of harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro area, EU and Member States is released around the middle of the month following the reference month.
The next release with full data for January 2026 is scheduled for 25 February 2026 .
Methods and definitions
Annual inflation is the price change of consumer goods and services between the current month and the same month of the previous year. Monthly inflation is the price change between the current month and the previous month.
Geographical information
Up to December 31 2025, the euro area included Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland (EA20). From 1 January 2026, the euro area also includes Bulgaria (EA21).
The aggregate data series commented on this Euro indicator release refer to the official composition of the euro area in the most recent month for which data are available. Thus, Euro indicator release with data for months up to December 2025 commented on EA20 series, while releases with data for January 2026 onwards comment on EA21 series.
The euro area data refer to the country composition at a specific point in time. Changes in the composition of the euro area are incorporated using a chain index formula.
For more information
Get in touch
Further information on data
E-mail: estat-hicp@ec.europa.eu
