Demografie, revue pro výzkum populačního vývoje - č. 3/2025

Hana Třísková

Demografie, 67(3): 107–123
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0367

Abstract
This study examines the preferences of men and women towards maternal employment, focusing on mothers with pre-school-age and school-age children in Poland and Slovakia and utilising data from the Family and Changing Gender Roles V module (2022) in the International Social Survey Programme. Despite progress in achieving gender-equal access to paid leave and the increasing number of pre-school facilities, maternal employment has remained low in these countries, especially among mothers with children aged 0–2. The results indicate that Poles exhibit a stronger preference for mothers with a child under school age staying at home, while Slovaks are more supportive of maternal employment, particularly on a part-time basis. For mothers with school-age children, full-time employment is broadly supported in both countries. These findings highlight persistent cultural barriers in Poland and the positive impact of policy measures implemented in Slovakia to increase and support maternal employment.

Keywords
maternal employment, gender roles, traditional and egalitarian attitudes, parental leave, pre-school facilities, family policy, work-life balance

David A. Swanson – Jeff Tayman

Demografie, 67(3): 124–147
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0365

Abstract
Population forecasts produced by governments at all levels are used in the public sector, the private sector, and by researchers. They have been primarily produced using deterministic methods. This paper shows how a method for producing measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts while meeting several important criteria, including the concept of utility. The paper includes an assessment of the efficacy of the method by: (1) examining the change in uncertainty intervals it produces by population size and population growth rate; and (2) comparing the width and temporal change of the uncertainty intervals it produces to the width and temporal change of uncertainty intervals produced by a Bayesian approach. The approach follows the logic of the Espenshade-Tayman method for producing confidence intervals in conjunction with ARIMA equations to construct a probabilistic interval around the total populations forecasted from the Cohort Component Method, the typical approach used by demographers. The paper finds that population size and population growth rate are related to the width of the forecast intervals, with size being the stronger predictor, and the intervals from the proposed method are not dissimilar to those produced by a Bayesian approach. This approach appears to be well-suited for generating probabilistic population forecasts in the United States and elsewhere where these forecasts are routinely produced. It has a higher level of utility, is simpler, and is more accessible to those tasked with producing measures of uncertainty around population forecasts.

Keywords
ARIMA, Bayesian Methods, Cohort Forecasting Methods, Espenshade-Tayman Method, Forecast Uncertainty, Utility

Elena ?oldan

Demografie, 67(3): 150–166
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0363

Abstract
This study presents an empirical analysis of the demographic dividend (DD) and the demographic window of opportunity (DWO), examining their distinct roles in analysing the economic implications of age-specific population dynamics. The study proposes a mixed-methods approach that combines National Transfer Accounts (NTA) with a demographic assessment of the beneficial period – the DWO. Through an empirical analysis, the study illustrates the distinctions between the demographic dividend (DD) and the demographic window of opportunity (DWO). Drawing on evidence from eight selected countries, the study reveals time lags between the opening of the DWO and the emergence of the DD, as well as cross-country variations in the magnitude of both the DWO and the DD. The proposed analytical framework offers a replicable model for evaluating population dynamics within the context of the demographic dividend.

Keywords
demographic window of opportunity, demographic dividend, NTA, age structure, support ratio

Radek Havel