Jan Procházka: Další pokles úrokových sazeb může přijít už v únoru

 

Rozhovor s Janem Procházkou, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Peter Laca a Kryštof Chamonikolas (Bloomberg 22. 1. 2025)

Česká národní banka by se mohla v únoru vrátit k uvolňování měnové politiky, naznačuje člen bankovní rady Jan Procházka v rozhovoru pro agenturu Bloomberg. Nižší inflace, než se očekávalo, a prohlubující se pokles průmyslové výroby dávají prostor pro snížení úrokových sazeb. Klíčovým faktorem pro rozhodnutí bude zveřejnění předběžných dat o lednové inflaci.

Rozhovor (anglicky)

The Czech central bank should be able to resume monetary easing next month, though the outlook for more action is clouded by a mixture of domestic and external risks, according to board member Jan Prochazka.

While most policymakers in Prague voted to hold the key interest rate at 4% last month, Prochazka and one other central banker sought a ninth consecutive cut. Since then, December inflation data came in softer than expected and a decline in the country’s dominant manufacturing sector deepened.

“The data we have seen so far appear to back my view that the fine-tuning process could resume as soon as in February,” Prochazka, 45, said in an interview on Tuesday. “Beyond February, we’ll have to go meeting-by-meeting and be very data-dependent.”

After a year of policy easing that brought the benchmark rate down by 3 percentage points, the seven-member board is facing a dilemma about how much lower borrowing costs can go. The export-reliant economy is struggling to pick up momentum while price risks remain in services and a rebounding housing market.

One of the key factors for the Feb. 6 decision will be the release for the first time of preliminary inflation data for January published on the day of the rate meeting. “Unless the January flash inflation number shows some extreme re-pricing, I think another rate cut is certainly possible,” Prochazka said. “I can’t speak for my colleagues, but I don’t expect their views to be significantly different.”

Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova, one of the most cautious board members, said this month that she saw a rising likelihood of a cut in early 2025. Forward rate agreements indicate bets on between 50 and 75 basis points of easing within 12 months, but signal that investors are split about a February reduction.

The rising cost of services remains a key risk that prevents the central bank from completely abandoning its restrictive policy stance, Prochazka said. One reason is the lingering impact of the pandemic, during which people left jobs in services for the manufacturing sector. Now services need to hire staff, which is driving salaries up amid low unemployment rate.

“We are assessing whether the policy remains tight,” Prochazka said. “After all, rates are approaching levels where they will no longer be restrictive, and we all agree that some degree of restriction is still needed.”

The past three months have brought signals that consumer sentiment is gradually improving, although household savings still remain above the long-term average, he said. Domestic consumption helped the economy last year and it should be the main driver of growth in 2025 as well, while trends abroad are more negative. As a result, the growth forecast for the full year may need to be revised slightly downward from previous 2.4%, the board member said.

A key focus for investors is the neutral interest rate, which the central bank’s staff analysis puts at 3%. Prochazka said he saw the neutral level higher, somewhere between 3% and 4%, though he declined to give a precise figure.

Still, the policymaker said that the rate path will depend on incoming data, the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, developments in German industry and volatile prices such as food and fuels.

Prochazka said he would like to get to a position where the bank could cut or raise rates, depending on what the economic developments require at that time. “I would find it more suitable to bring the rates lower, and then prepare the market for the possibility of rates going either further down, or up, if need be,” he said.