National Economy Remained Stable and Saw an Increase in the First Two Months - National Bureau of Statistics of China
18 March 2024
In the first two months, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, and fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts. All regions and departments accelerated the efforts to foster a new development pattern, took solid steps to promote high-quality development, endeavored to expand domestic demand, optimize structure, boost confidence and prevent and defuse risks. As a result, the synergy of the macro policies continued to take effect, production and demands maintained stable and saw an increase, employment and prices were generally steady, and the development quality was improving. The national economy maintained the momentum of recovery and growth and got off to a stable start.
1. Industrial Production Accelerated and Consumer Goods Manufacturing and High-Tech Manufacturing Rebounded.
In the first two months, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 7.0 percent year on year, or 0.2 percentage points faster than that of December 2023. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining went up by 2.3 percent year on year, manufacturing up by 7.7 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 7.9 percent. The value added of consumer goods manufacturing increased by 4.7 percent, 4.4 percentage points faster than that of December 2023. The value added of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5 percent, 1.1 percentage points faster. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 5.8 percent; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 7.3 percent; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 6.2 percent; and that of private enterprises was up by 6.5 percent. In terms of products, the production of 3D printing devices, electric vehicle charging facilities and electronic components grew by 49.5 percent, 41.8 percent and 41.5 percent year on year respectively. In February, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 0.56 percent month on month. In February, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49.1 percent, and the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 54.2 percent.
2. Service Sector Grew Well and Modern Services Showed a Good Momentum.
In first two months, the Index of Services Production grew by 5.8 percent year on year. Specifically, that of accommodation and catering, information transmission, software and information technology services, financial intermediation, transport, storage and postal services, wholesales and retails grew by 12.1 percent, 10.4 percent, 8.2 percent, 7.1 percent and 7.0 percent year on year respectively. In February, the Business Activity Index for Services was 51.0 percent, 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. The Business Activity Expectation Index for Services was 58.1 percent. Specifically, the Business Activity Expectation Index for road transportation, air transportation, catering, monetary and financial services, ecological protection and public facilities management, and culture, sports and entertainment stayed within the high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above.
3. Market Sales Continued to Recover and Service Consumption Grew Fast.
In the first two months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8,130.7 billion yuan, up by 5.5 percent year on year. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 7,043.7 billion yuan, up by 5.5 percent; and that in rural areas reached 1,087.0 billion yuan, up by 5.8 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 7,182.6 billion yuan, up by 4.6 percent; the income of catering was 948.1 billion yuan, up by 12.5 percent. The sales of upgraded goods grew fast. The retail sales of telecommunication equipment, sports and entertainment and motor vehicles by enterprises above the designated size went up by 16.2 percent, 11.3 percent and 8.7 percent respectively. The online retail sales of consumer goods was 2,153.5 billion yuan, up by 15.3 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 1,820.6 billion yuan, up by 14.4 percent, accounting for 22.4 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In the first two months, the retail sales of services grew by 12.3 percent year on year. In February, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 0.03 percent compared with that of the previous month.
4. Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Picked up and Investment in Manufacturing and High-Tech Industries Continued to Grow Fast.
In the first two months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 5,084.7 billion yuan, up by 4.2 percent year on year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the year 2023; the investment in fixed assets was up by 8.9 percent year on year with the investment in real estate development deducted. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 6.3 percent year on year, that in manufacturing grew by 9.4 percent, and that in real estate development declined by 9.0 percent. The floor space of new commercial buildings sold was 113.69 million square meters, down by 20.5 percent year on year; the total sales of new commercial buildings were 1,056.6 billion yuan, down by 29.3 percent. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went down by 5.7 percent, that in the secondary industry up by 11.9 percent, and that in the tertiary industry up by 1.2 percent. The private investment went up by 0.4 percent, and increased by 7.6 percent year on year with the investment in real estate development deducted. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 9.4 percent year on year, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 10.0 percent and 7.8 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of optical and photographic equipment and in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment grew by 43.2 percent and 33.1 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in professional technical services and in information services went up by 36.2 percent and 16.1 percent respectively. In February, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.88 percent over that of the previous month.
5. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.
In the first two months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 6,613.8 billion yuan, up by 8.7 percent year on year. The value of exports was 3,752.3 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent, and the value of imports was 2,861.5 billion yuan, up by 6.7 percent. The trade balance was 890.9 billion yuan in surplus. The imports and exports of general trade went up by 10.0 percent year on year, accounting for 65.7 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises went up by 17.7 percent, accounting for 54.6 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 4.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The exports of mechanical and electrical products went up by 11.8 percent, accounting for 59.1 percent of the total value of exports.
6. Employment was Generally Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate was Steady.
In the first two months, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.3 percent. In February, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3 percent, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month or 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.5 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 4.8 percent, among which, the rate of the population with non-local agricultural household registration was 4.8 percent. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1 percent. The employees of enterprises worked 48.0 hours per week on average.
7. Consumer Price Stopped Its Decline and Began to Increase and Core CPI Rebounded.
In the first two months, the consumer price index (CPI) remained the same year on year. Specifically, it decreased by 0.8 percent in January and increased by 0.7 percent in February. Grouped by commodity categories, in the first two months, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 1.9 percent year on year; clothing up by 1.6 percent; housing up by 0.3 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.7 percent; transportation and communication down by 1.4 percent; education, culture and entertainment up by 2.6 percent; medical services and health care up by 1.4 percent; and other articles and services up by 2.9 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for pork went down by 9.1 percent, fresh fruits down by 6.6 percent, fresh vegetables down by 5.1 percent, and grain up by 0.4 percent. The core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.8 percent year on year. Specifically, in February, it went up by 1.2 percent year on year, 0.8 percentage points faster than last month. In January and February, the consumer price index went up by 0.3 percent and 1.0 percent month on month respectively.
In the first two months, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 2.6 percent year on year. In January, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 2.5 percent year on year or down by 0.2 percent month on month. In February, it went down by 2.7 percent year on year or down by 0.2 percent month on month. In the first two months, the purchasing prices for industrial producers dropped by 3.4 percent year on year.
Generally speaking, in the first two months, with the macro policies taking effect, the national economy continued to recover and turn for the better. However, we should be aware that the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, the domestic effective demand remains insufficient and the foundation for economic recovery and growth needs to be further consolidated. At the next stage, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirits of the Central Economic Work Conference and the “two sessions” (National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), and adhere to the principles of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, promoting stability through progress and establishing the new before abolishing the old. We should fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerate the efforts to create a new pattern of development, strive to promote high-quality development, and intensify efforts on macro regulation. We must effectively boost economic vitality, prevent and defuse risks, improve public expectations, constantly consolidate and build the momentum of economic recovery and growth and continue to effectively pursue higher-quality economic growth and appropriately increase economic output.
Notes:
1. The growth rates of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are calculated at comparable prices. Both are real growth rates. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.
2. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.
As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication is found in the products output of some enterprise groups.
3. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.
4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals), retail enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.
As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.
Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).
The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.
5.The retail sales of services refer to the total value of services directly provided by enterprises (establishments, self-employed units) to individuals and other units for non-production and non-operating purposes in the form of transactions. It aims to reflect the value of services with the nature of consumption sold by service providers in monetary terms, including the retail sales of services in transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment, and other fields.
6. The growth rates of investment in fixed assets are calculated on a comparable basis.
7. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.
8. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.
9. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.
In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.
