China: National Economy Sustained Good Momentum of Recovery in October

15 November 2023

In October, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments firmly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated efforts to foster a new pattern of development, and steadily promoted the high-quality development. As a result, the macro-control policies continued to show effects, production and supply increased steadily, market demands witnessed continuous improvement, employment and prices were generally stable, transformation and upgrades were advanced solidly, and the national economy sustained the good momentum of recovery.

 

1. Industrial Production Accelerated and Equipment Manufacturing Continued to Rebound.

 

In October, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.6 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage points faster than that of the previous month; the month-on-month growth was 0.39 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 2.9 percent year on year, manufacturing went up by 5.1 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water grew by 1.5 percent. The value added of equipment manufacturing went up by 6.2 percent year on year, 0.7 percentage points faster than that of the previous month, registering growth for three consecutive months. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 4.9 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 5.6 percent; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 0.9 percent; and that of private enterprises was up by 3.9 percent. In term of products, the output of solar cells, service robots and integrated circuits went up by 62.8 percent, 59.1 percent and 34.5 percent year on year respectively. In the first ten months, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 4.1 percent year on year. In the first nine months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size dropped by 9.0 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 2.7 percentage points over that in the first eight months. Specifically, the profits in September grew by 11.9 percent year on year. In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49.5 percent; the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 55.6 percent.

 

2. Service Sector Witnessed Sound Momentum of Growth and Modern Service Industries Grew Fast.

 

In October, the Index of Services Production increased by 7.7 percent year on year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. Specifically, that of accommodation and catering, that of transport, storage and post, that of information transmission, software and information technology services, that of wholesale and retail, and that of financial intermediation grew by 21.3 percent, 13.2 percent, 10.9 percent, 10.0 percent and 7.8 percent year on year respectively. In the first ten months, the Index of Services Production increased by 7.9 percent year on year. In the first nine months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size went up by 7.1 percent year on year. In October, the Business Activity Index for Services was 50.1 percent and the Business Activity Expectation Index for Services was 57.5 percent. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, and telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services stayed within the high expansion range of 60.0 percent and above.

 

3. Growth of Market Sales Accelerated and Service Consumption Continued Fast Growth.

 

In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,333.3 billion yuan, up by 7.6 percent year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than that of the previous month, or up by 0.07 percent month on month. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 3,747.9 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent year on year; and that in rural areas reached 585.4 billion yuan, up by 8.9 percent. Grouped by types of consumption, the retail sales of goods were 3,853.3 billion yuan, up by 6.5 percent; the income of catering was 480.0 billion yuan, up by 17.1 percent. Of the total retail sales of commodities by businesses above the designated size, the retail sales of sports and recreational articles, communication equipment, automobiles and gold, silver and jewelry went up by 25.7 percent, 14.6 percent, 11.4 percent and 10.4 percent respectively. In the first ten months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,544.0 billion yuan, up by 6.9 percent year on year. The online retail sales totaled 12,291.5 billion yuan, up by 11.2 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 10,301.0 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent, accounting for 26.7 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In the first ten months, the retail sales of services went up by 19.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage points faster than that of the first nine months.

 

4. Investment in Fixed Assets Continued to Scale up and Investment in High-Tech Industries Increased Fast.

 

In the first ten months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 41,940.9 billion yuan, up by 2.9 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the first nine months. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 5.9 percent year on year, that in manufacturing grew by 6.2 percent, and that in real estate development dropped by 9.3 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 925.79 million square meters, down by 7.8 percent year on year; the total sales of commercial buildings were 9,716.1 billion yuan, down by 4.9 percent. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went down by 1.3 percent year on year, that in the secondary industry up by 9.0 percent, and that in the tertiary industry up by 0.4 percent. The private investment went down by 0.5 percent, a decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points over that in the first nine months. Deducting the investment in real estate development, the private investment grew by 9.1 percent year on year. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 11.1 percent year on year, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 11.3 percent and 10.5 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment and in manufacturing of medical equipment, measuring instrument and meter grew by 19.0 percent and 16.7 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in services for transformation of scientific and technological achievements and in professional technical services went up by 37.3 percent and 29.1 percent respectively. In October, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 0.10 percent month on month.

 

5. Imports and Exports of Goods Shifted from Decline to Increase Year on Year and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

 

In October , the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,5 41 .7 billion yuan, up by 0.9 percent year on year , while that of last month was down by 0.7 percent . Spec ifically, the total value of exports was 1 , 973 . 6 billion yuan, down by 3. 1 percent; the total value of imports was 1,5 68 . 1 billion yuan, up by 6 .4 percent. The trade balance was 4 05 . 5 billion yuan in surplus. In the first t en months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 34 , 319 . 9 billion yuan, up by 0. 03 percent year on year. Among that, the total value of exports was 1 9 , 554 . 3 billion yuan, up by 0. 4 percent; the total value of imports was 1 4 , 7 6 5 .6 billion yuan, down by 0.5 percent. In the first ten months, the imports and exports of general trade increased by 1. 8 percent year on year, accounting for 64 .9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 1. 1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 6. 2 percent, accounting for 5 3.1 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 3. 1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 2.8 percent, accounting for 58. 5 percent of the total value of exports.

 

6. Employment w as Generally Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate in Major Cities Dropped.

 

In October , the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5. 0 percent, the same as that of the previous month . The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5. 0 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 4. 9 percent, of which, the rate of population with non-local agricultural household registration stood at 4. 6 percent. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5. 0 percent, down by 0. 2 percentage points over that of the previous month. The employees of enterprises worked 48.7 hours per week on average.

 

7. Consumer Price was Stable with Slight Drop and Decline of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Expand ed Slightly Year on Y ear.

 

In October , the consumer price index (CPI) went down by 0. 2 percent year on year , or down by 0. 1 percent month on month . Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 2.1 percent year on year; clothing up by 1.1 percent; housing up by 0. 3 percent; articles and services for daily use down by 0. 6 percent; transportation and communication down by 0.9 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2. 3 percent; medical services and health care up by 1. 3 percent; and other articles and services up by 3. 6 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for pork were down by 30.1 percent, fresh vegetables down by 3. 8 percent, grain up by 0.6 percent and fresh fruits up by 2.2 percent. The core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.6 percent year on year. In the first ten months, the consumer price index went up by 0. 4 percent year on year.

 

In October , the producer prices for industrial products dropped by 2.6 percent year on year, or maintained the same level as that of the previous month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers dropped by 3.7 percent year on year , or increased by 0.2 percent month on month. In the first ten months, the producer prices for industrial products and the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 3. 1 percent and 3.6 percent year on year respectively.

 

Generally speaking, in October, the national economy s ustained good m omentum of r ecovery with major indicators continuing to improve and overall performance stable. However, we should be aware that many unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment still exist, the domestic demand remains insufficient and the foundation for economic recovery and growth needs to be further consolidated. At the next stage, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability , take solid steps to promote high-quality development , implement macro regulation in a targeted and effective way , and make efforts to expand domestic demand, boost confidence and fend off risks. We must continuously enhance the econom ic performance , boost the endogenous driving force , improve the public expectations and defuse risks and h idden dangers , in a bid to effectively upgrade the quality and appropriately expand the quantity of the economy.

 

Notes:

 

1. The growth rates of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are calculated at comparable prices. Both are real growth rates. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

2. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication is found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

3. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals), retail enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.

 

5. The retail sales of services refer to the total value of services directly provided by enterprises (establishments, self-employed units) to individuals and other units for non-production and non-operating purposes in the form of transactions. It aims to reflect the value of services with the nature of consumption sold by service providers in monetary terms, including the retail sales of services in transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment, and other fields.

 

6. The growth rates of investment in fixed assets are calculated on a comparable basis.

 

7. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

 

8. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

9. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.